Colombians are fed up with their traditional liberal and conservative parties, according to an election poll that predicts a win for both the left and the right.
Pollster Guarumo, a newcomer, said that the governing U Party of President Juan Manuel Santos can expect an electoral punishment after a controversial peace process and countless corruption scandals.
With 16% of voters still undecided, the biggest winner would be the blank vote. Almost 23.5% of the respondents told the pollster they would cast this protest vote if elections were held tomorrow.
Hard right opposition party Democratic Center (CD) of former President Alvaro Uribe would become the biggest party, four years after its debut in Congress.
The anti-corruption Green Alliance, a fierce opponent of the CD, would also make major gains and become the second biggest party in Congress, according to Guarumo.
The FARC, which is guaranteed 10 seats as part of an ongoing peace process, can also count on 1.2% of the votes, of which it is uncertain if this would result in a seat in one of the houses.
Electoral preference
- Blank vote (23.4%)
- Don’t know (15.9%)
- Democratic Center (15.6%)
- Green Alliance (8.7%)
- Liberal Party (8.5%)
- Radical Change (6%)
- Democratic Pole (5.3%)
- U Party (5.2%)
- Conservative Party (3.5%)
- Decency List (2.1%)
- MIRA (1.8%)
- Citizens’ Option (1.3%)
- FARC (1.2%)
Both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, the two traditional powerhouses, should expect an electoral beating on March 11, the Guarumo poll indicated.
The conservative vote could almost entirely go to Uribe and Radical Change, the party of former Vice President German Vargas.
Eight years of Santos’ “National Unity coalition” have divided Colombia.
The measured polarization would make it more difficult for the incoming president to form a coalition. It also promises a strong opposition for whomever wins the presidency.
The reliability is the new pollster has yet to be tested. However, its sample of 4,800 people in dozens of cities is considerably larger than that of traditional polls.
The outcome of the elections does not depend entirely on the preference of the people. Electoral observers have already warned about possible fraudulent voter registrations.
